Turning the TLT Tide

Media Tentacles

 

It’s funny how the financial media works. Since Thanksgiving, give or take a few days, we had nothing but positivity coming out of the tube when it came to the Markets. The actual data, the real stuff, like the unemployment numbers were horrific but the Markets shrugged it off and so did the talking heads on television. We were, and will still be, bombarded by the most annoying question of the quarter and most likely next year: “Did we make a market bottom?” Well, did we? Huh? Let’s get the guy who was the bull on six months ago to call the bottom .Who really knows? Nobody, that’s who.

Yesterday’s selling, profit taking or whatever was that little wakeup call that said “look, it’s not over.” It’s definitely not over. What has caught my attention as well as the attention of a lot of other investors out there is the Treasuries. Just Google the words “treasury bubble” and see how many articles you get. I had very small positions in TLT and TLH in another account that I could not resist cutting them in half. How many more people are doing the same? Just like the JB Income and Growth account, I’m letting the cash sit aside for another rainy day.

What does the possible Treasury bubble mean? There’s roughly a 50/50 contrarian correlation on the SP500 and TLT charts. That is, during certain peak dates on both charts, they singled a reversal. This time around, there is no correlation. The TLT is busting the charts (literally) while the Markets were going up. Initially, my target to buy some January puts was the 115/120 range but without a release in steam and a break in the trend, it just looks like we could see 125. I may just buy the TBT, which is the etf short, so I could average in and not worry about a short options month like the January 2009 for the TLT to correct. It might just be really interesting when it does. If the correlation hold true this time, we could just see a big stock market bounce. Or not.

I started to make my little buy or focus list again yesterday and it had oil written all over it. It’s a wonderful thing to see gas prices below $2 a gallon and oil at $36. I don’t foresee a huge demand that would cause another super run or spike to the $150 level happening as quickly as the last one but it’s nice to now, if you get long, that there’s only so much oil left in the world to fuel or transportation needs and even if the car manufactures produce a oil alternative vehicle tomorrow, not many people can afford or are getting the credit to buy one. It’s as simple as that. Therefore, my list includes DIG (great yield too) and the USO.

On a final note, as I was driving home, I listened to a great opinion segment on NPR. Yes, I listen to NPR and I’m not a senior citizen. The subject was on Obama and how he’s wrapping up his administration picks so quickly. The commentator pointed out that he is missing one important new category and that is the Office of Common Sense. This would be the government agency in charge of waking up the middle class from the illusion that are in middle class territory and force them to realize that their economic status and more important their habits must change or going to change whether they realize it or not. I like that.

The Jumping Bear’s First Annual To-do List

First JB Annual To-do List

I have a lot to do kick start this blog.  So much to do. Very exciting stuff.

Thus far, I have several categories ready and writing for me to fill it with the exciting stuff. For starters, there’s the JB Growth and Income Portfolio that’s going to include my real life equity portfolio. Then, there’s the JB Focus List that’s going to be the stocks that are on my looking to purchase list. I also have the JB Giving Back category which is something new for me because it’s going to have a mix of my financial goals and how I can give back to my community and the world. I also have a JB Health category because being healthy means being wealthy. I have a JB Day Trades category to keep focus on day to day equity action. Finally, there’s the Musings category where I can just let the flow produce whatever it is that’s on my mind whether or not it’s equity or financially related.

Like I said, it’s a pretty big annual to-do list. This blog is like a seed for me so I can plant it and watch it grow in real life. My job is to simply write, kind of like I’m doing at this moment. It takes very little effort on my part, I skip TV at night and get up a little more early in the morning. That’s the plan. Keeping it simple.

The Automatic Ripple

I promise we'll sell lots of cars!!

     I think it was Senator Dodd who started off the introduction yesterday with the automakers. At the the time, I was busy trading in some of the big retail names like JCG, M, TIF and DECK which were up significantly at the start of the trading day. I managed to catch Dodd’s line about how the Wall Street bailout crowd never had to beg like the automakers were doing. I’m not entirely convinced that the conparison is the same though. At this moment, I believe we should let the free market do what it needs to do with any of the big three. I’m not cold hearted about a failing industry and all those people who will lose their jobs. At the same time, I’m also not worried that the economy and the world will dive into a depression just because we didn’t bail them out. Why? The free markets are already saying that the big three suck. I own two German made vehicles which are solid as a rock and I readily admit that there are times when I wish and feel a little guilty for not driving a Hummer or a Ford pickup. The fact is, I’ve been in American cars and you know what? They are far inferior to the Japanese and the German ones. Sorry. I know the truth hurts and it hurts me too because I would rather be driving an American car but I’m not going to make a financial choice based on patriotism. There’s other ways to be patriotic like not begging for money to keep a poor industry going. C’mon! We’re Americans for goodness sake. Our best asset, perhaps our number one asset, is our imagination and then our resolve to see our dreams come alive. We cannot settle for just mediocre or last place. As a taxpayer, my vote is for no.

     It’s all very complicated but where do we stop? Let’s face it, if the Big Three was really the Micro Three we wouldn’t even be talking a bailout or loan or however you can spin it. What I mean is that the automakers line of reasoning is a fear based model that goes something like this: “If we fail and have to close our doors than all of our employees would be out of work.” That’s a fact. Then comes the ripple. The suppliers and then what about the exclusive dealerships? All gone. Freaking really scary, right. Can’t deny that these won’t happen. The thing is, right now, if you have the courage to read the financial papers you’ll read that the exact same thing is happening. People are getting fired in every single industry and not just in small percentages. Citigroup’s over 50,000 count just makes you want to puke. I noted to a colleague yesterday that on the surface, on average, these big company layoffs are well over 10% and as high as 18% as was the case in JEF yesterday. 18%. Wow. So, automakers aside, the rest of the world already started their own worst case scenario, that is, the Big Three’s selling point to the taxpayers if you will, but it’s all happening a little bit slower. What does this mean? Simple. If you lose your job in the financial industry, for example, chances are that you won’t be substituting that same job in another company. In a strong economy you could. That goes the same for an automaker. If GM closes, chances are the autoworker won’t be substituting his or her job in the same industry anytime soon. There is no difference.

What about the ripple then? Let’s look at the guy who loses his financial job. It’s just a hunch but I don’t think that guy will be spending any discretionary income in, most likely, the retail industry. New shirt? New shoes? No way. Whatever he has now will have to do. Nothing new. Therefore, the financial guy has a different ripple but a ripple nontheless over his suppliers much like an automaker.

     The point I’m trying to convey is thus:

THE MARKETS MUST CORRECT NATURALLY. As Art Cashin loves to say, the patient is sick but we are bleeding him to death. In other words, no matter what we do or how much money we throw at this thing, it’s bigger than all of us. I don’t believe it’s something to fear though. Definitely not. It’s exciting because it’s crunch time. It’s time to show the world what it means to be an American. That’s exciting to me. It’s patriotic.

     On the bright side of things, I traded some of the homebuilder names again like PHM and MTH. Have you noticed something interesting about these stocks? I have. They are all still publicly traded! Don’t you find that exciting? I mean, when the history books finally gets the ink dry on this mess and your great grandkids are reading about this era, won’t the housing industry take the bulk of the blame for causing this slippery slope? I think it’s very promising for equities in general that these guys are still around, still trading and have (at least for now) trading at some sort of bottom. At least for now.

Energy Burst

The Other Energy

Let’s be honest, this rally was the first real attempt to break out of the trend of selling on bad news. Let’s also be honest and admit that the news was pretty gloomy but what the Markets told us was that the unemployment numbers had already been priced in. I do believe it’s as simple as that. What can I say, I’m simple guy. Is it the bottom? I’m simple, not arrogant.

Still, it was very pleasant to imagine that most of the worse case scenarios, including the surging unemployment was neatly factored into the massacre we had seen in every sector. Let’s take energy. I hope oil does go down to $20 a barrel. We can all hope and argue that it’s totally possible but let us not forget that not too long ago a lot of us made the exact same argument and added another zero to that 20. Quite pleasing, we never made it there. Profits simply had to be taken especially when demand was falling off of a cliff.

So what happened yesterday in the Markets? Well, more bleeding in the energy stocks like CHK, WLT, SUN, SLB, HES, CVX, and the etfs like USO and DIG in the morning hours. Did they hit a bottom? Who knows (I guess I can stop asking that moving forward). What I do know is that most if not all reversed with the rest of the overall stock market rally yesterday. This was a good sign and one I’m certain will be talked about.

That’s the good news. Here’s the bad. The Market will undoubtedy be wondering and try to envision (as it always does but more so in a Bear Market) what’s the next big bad thing lurking around the corner. For instance, how high has it priced in unemployment and it’s devestating ripples or trickle down? 7%, 10%, how about 15%? What is the worse case scenario? Is it the Depression numbers? Is the Market content at bad but just not the big D type of bad? That’s something that certainly is on the table.

I think for now, and by now I mean by Monday because things can change so fast, the Market sees some silver lining in several forms like the upcoming holidays. It’s something to look forward to. Period. Next, the new President will certainly be exciting to watch. This guy won’t be on a ranch his first several months in office. He’s excited about making change and he’s a true work horse. You can be sure that he’ll be all over everything and will make do on every single promise he had made. If he doesn’t, the Market will not like it but I think it will give it the time and space it needs, let’s all hope, to absorb all the negative numbers that we will continue to see at least for the next two or three quarters.

Next week, it would be nice to see the DJIA break 9000 and close above it. It is possible and would be a further added support. We all need know that we can use any support we can get our hands on.

JB Giving Back

We all live on the same Rock

So, I’m going to give back. I was up last night discussing with my wife how I’m going to tackle this. The task or concept of giving back started to get complicated the more complex my wish list of how I want to see myself giving became. For example, I don’t want to just write a check and hand it to a charity. I’ve done that before and it feels really good but I have no idea where my money (now their money) is going and how efficient it’s getting to what I intended the money for. The complex part is that I want to start my own charity but the idea just doesn’t make sense right now. My job and my love is trading and that’s the bread and butter that’s going to feed the giving back. It would be foolish to take time and energy away from that.

     Keeping it simple. I’ll look into what a Charitable Trust is all about. I’ve heard of it but have no clue and will consider it if it will fit into my agenda and if it’s not too complicated. What I can do, and what I’ve been meaning to do is start some scholarships. The idea came to me because I had been the recipient of scholarships in the past. I’ll never forget that and I always wanted to give somebody else the same opportunity. That’s simple enough.

     I’m also going to give away all the stuff that I just don’t use. I have surfboards that haven’t touched the ocean in years because I ride on my favorite boards. Certainly there are kids around here that can use them. Maybe I can make some calls. Maybe I can sell them and use the money for the Surfrider Foundation. That’s easy enough. How about all the designer clothes in my closet? My gosh, it’s just ridiculous. Certainly there are guys that can appreciate and use them more than me. I can make some phone calls and I’m sure I can find an organization that will take them. Next, there are so many toys just lying around the house that my kids don’t play with. All gone.  My kids will never notice it.

     The point is, I’m going to start here. Keep it simple and watch it grow. The Universe will take care of the rest.

Starting From Scratch

The Early Days

     Momentum continued to surge in the energy related and infrastructure names. Letter X was up around 30% and it was all very exciting until you took a step back, looked at the daily chart and noticed how sad it is that a 30% move barely makes a dent. This is how it will be for quite some time.

     I have to admit that things, the Markets, etc. do seem and feel a lot more stable. It’s not as easy, at the time of this writing, to see us breaking below 7392. Fundamentally, nothing has changed in the last few weeks with the exception of acceptance and faith. We’re putting a lot of faith into this new administration. Maybe too much but who knows from this point. It’s not very clear right now but at least the Markets seem to be searching and scratching to believe in the positive side of things. Until that might change again.

     The bottom line is that, and I loosely quote from another trader, is that pumping money into the same economy is not creating and putting sustainable use to our abundant lands nor is it creating new wealth. I really want to believe and I am really tempted to buy more into my JB portfolio. Not yet. My focus is buying into some of these energy and infrastructure stocks when we get another pullback. If we push higher and hold past 9000 this week and we get overbought then we sell off,  I would be interested in X and DIG to start out with and will keep the list tight.

December 12, 2008

The holidays are approaching real fast. I’ve been in vacation mode the last few days at work but my true holiday doesn’t come until the 23rd of this month. This means I’ve been showing up at work and trading like I’m on vacation which is just dumb. It’s just dumb because there are so many opportunities out there and I need to be in trader mode…not vacation mode or not be there at all.

Also, I’ve yet to give up a bunch of my personal belongings as I mentioned in JB Giving Back. That’s all part of the mood I’ve been in. My goal today is to make at least two phone calls to get the process rolling.

What else? Oh yeah, the JB Health. Well, it’s a new year that’s rolling around the corner and I’ve been an avid runner for several years now and I’m just bored with it. I shouldn’t have to listen to my ipod just to get going and stay going. I love the high of the long run but I need a change of pace from the short ones so I’ve put together some goals and ideas. There’s always a bunch of options I get to do when the weather is permitting and the first thing that always, and I mean always, takes precedence when the conditions are right is surfing. I love surfing and I will surf before anything else. If I lived in a location where I could surf like scheduling a tennis match then that’s what I’d do but I can’t so I have to be imaginative to stay healthy and blow off the steam that’s accumulated at the office. All traders need to let out a lot of tension. So here goes. My idea is to join a gym. I don’t love the gym per se. I mean it’s ok but it gets boring like jogging and it’s cool to have a gym partner but that’s when I was in school. I’m not hooking up with a gym partner these days and I’m definitely not squandering my money to pay a trainer to be my partner so I figured that I can make it interesting and challenging at the same time. The gym I want to join is approximately seven miles from my house so I figured I’d buy a new bike (my beach cruiser wont’ cut it) and bike there to get a thirty minute workout in then bike home. I’m pretty stoked on the idea because if you think about the whole common gym routine it’s pretty backwards. I work by the gym I want to go to and every morning I see the gym goers drive up in their cars, get out with low energy and hop on a lame cardio machine to get them going (by the way, I don’t get the avid runners on those machines). If I go on my bike, it will take me ten or fifteen minutes longer to get there but I’d already have my cardio done and I get to push myself or challenge myself again by riding back home. The amount of time is totally the same.

In conclusion, moving forward it’s all about positive change, making goals and keeping them. This JB journal will help keep me in check.

Energy Burst Take Two

So this week it was all about oil, infrastructure and all the other types of tangible commodity stocks. Letter X had surged around 200% off of it’s low and multiple other names had posted similar strong gains. That is what you call a bear market bounce. I mentioned earlier that I am waiting for these names to retreat back before I take a position in them but I have to say that it is not easy doing so.

What I mean is that a Depression scenerio is definitely still on the table. Mr. Dimon from JPM himself expressed skepticism over the possibility that one could occur but he would be the last person if he truly believed one was iminent that would just come out and say, “oh yeah, we’re definitely going down much further.” I further believe that because he had expressed, almost in the same breath, that he thinks housing prices will fall another 20% that he’s not telling us what he really believes.

That last comment of his sparked me to revisit Realtor.com and do my weekly real estate homework. I’ve been hitting this website just about once a week for over three years now. I link it with the local property appraiser web site to see what the home owner paid for his or her house. You know what? Prices are definitely going down and inventory is up. Yeah, it’s a bummer to see the same house for sale for years now but I’m not bummed out when I see the same homes on the market and when they are priced well above (sometimes 200%) of what the owner paid. It’s a strange sense of entitlement that a home owner believes that they must make a profit on their home. Interesting. Nevertheless, in my new search yesterday, I’ve noticed that local prices have come down and are becoming rather tempting. However, if you believe a new Depression is around the corner and that a push for even lower mortgage rates wont’ help the situation, it might just be worth waiting a bit longer. My point is, and I’m trying to tie this into my equity purchasing list, is that I’m not ecstatic about adding to my portfolio and I’m not sure I’d be willing to add to my portfolio if we drop 500 or more points from here. Well, maybe I’d add just a little but if, psychologically speaking, we do drop big again, but then the notion of breaking the 7492 level becomes a reality again and I would want to wait and temper my new purchases. For example, psychologically speaking, it becomes less plausible to get to the level and let alone breaking it, when we are over 1000 points away. I know that seems really obvious but it’s the truth. The closer we get the more depressing the thought of making the lows and new lows becomes. We start to bust out our long term technical charts, begin to revisit the macro fundamentals and convince ourselves once more that a DJIA below 6000 is feasible. If so, do we get there hard and fast or painfully slow?

December 13, 2008

I don’t have too much to say except that it was pretty darn amazing that the DJIA closed up today considering being slapped by big, bad news all around. It was very impressive.

Personally, as far as trading goes, even though I tried to focus I was still in vacation mode. I think that there was just a lot of distractions this week and I’m hoping that next week I can have more focus. The setups are certainly there and it’s a shame to waste them.

Bike to Gym

I headed to the local bike shop and got my new mountain/road bike after getting out of work early yesterday. I opted to go to the local shop and probably spend a little bit more money than Sports Authority or any other big chain store. On any given day, I’d much rather support my local shops even if that mean paying more.

Shortly after, I rode it 15 or 16 miles round trip to sign up at my new gym. My goal is to do that trip at least twice a week. Three times a week would be amazing. I can mostly only go when it’s dark so I equipped the bike with super strong lights in the front and the bank. It’s a big rush riding at night.

Heading Towards Gold?

Mr.Goldfinger

There are still plenty of setups at the trading desk. Certainly, and I’m not fooling myself, the volatility of the last three months has vanished. Therefore, I have to make the absolute most of what the Market is putting on my plate. At the same time, vacation is on my mind but as I said in my previous posts, I just have to pretend that it’s not.

Right now, it’s very hard to see the direction of the Markets. It was so much easier when commodities were in a massive bubble as well as oil and you could look at it and say, “how can you not take your profits off of the table?”. We are super steady right here and right now and equities on average have been blunted all around by roughly fifty percenty. The big question is, has it baked in the worst? That’s it. Simple as that. So, I continue to read the financials and watch that it’s steady as she goes in difficult times. AT & T fires a bunch of workers but then they raise their dividend. As a stock holder I’m not pleased. The dividend was sufficient enough and as a citizen and human being I would have been happier that those people could have kept their jobs.

What I’m trying to say is that I’m wondering if the Markets have priced in the unemployment numbers? Is it smart enough? Obama’s social programs are a right step but when his administration hands out it’s billions in contracts to American(hopefully) corporations, are the workers going to be American workers as well?

It’s hard to see through all of this and find some sort of direction and precedent. I don’t want to be naive but I also don’t want to look at the early 1930s as what to expect. Nobody does. We aren’t even close to being there yet and if we ever do, it won’t be same.

Yesterday, oil and gold and gold related stocks like the miners were the trades du jour. We have a gold bug in our office that swears that gold will be, as if it already hasn’t seen it’s hey day, the biggest thing. He backs it up by buying the physical stuff. It’s beautiful to hold gold coins and silver too if you ever get a chance. I understand his argument for gold but I don’t think it makes sense considering, like the dollar, it represents a value or a perception that we give to it and nothing else. The American dollar exists out of our perception that it has value by the People who stand behind it. Nothing more. I don’t want to imagine a time when that could no longer be the case and gold takes precendence for the sake of being gold.

Finally, once again, I poured over my current long term (5-20 years) positions in the Markets and decided not to add to the biggest losers. I figure that there are four possible macro scenarios in the near term.

1. First, we break the last DJIA lows, capitulate and price in a new Depression in which time I would add to my positions. I’m not the only person who believes it and as of this writing it does not seem like an iminent possiblity and the more we hold steady and possibly climb, the less likely the scenario becomes. I do not want to head in this direction whatsoever. No way. It’s way too scary and if it happens, times will be very, very difficult.
2. We hold steady, maybe just maybe, test or slightly break the lows but not in a capitulation fashion. It could be a slow bleed scenario but we we trade in a range for years. Hopefully, the equities in our portfolio continue to pay dividends and you could reinvest and with extra cash flow add onto them as time goes on. The Markets would see micro bubbles here and there. Micro bubbles are certain theme trades, for instance, the trades we saw in national security stocks after 9/11. They are bubbles that come and go based on a very brief new paradigm. The range, as I mentioned, could last for years like the Markets saw during the Cold War and Vietnam War years in the DJIA. Eventually, we could emerge and go up after we resolve, like those wars, whatever it is we need to resolve as a nation and a world. If not, well then, I would have to write a new list.
3. We could steadily climb up from here. The world and the nation, not unlike the Internet days experience a new sense of hope and we all get excited again about life and about making lots of money. We’d test highs and not lows. It could happen. Nobody, before they happened, could have seen the boom before the Internet bubble nor the Housing/Commodity bubble.
4. I’m totally wrong.

These are my thoughts now. Normally, it’s nice to be able to have just one possibility and not four. The sequence of numbers are in most likely to occur order. My vote is for number three.

Balance

Balance

“In jealousy there is more of self-love than love.” -Francois de la Rochefoucauld

I was going to write about and focus on being jealous in the wake of a mediocre performance in trading yesterday. I call it mediocre because I can compare my performance (based on P/L) to that of my colleagues. The difference was 10 to 1. That hurts. This means, the guys I literally sit next to made up to ten times more money than me. I know. Boo hoo. Bring out the world’s smallest violin. I have to talk about it though because this sort of thing not only happens on a trading desk but everywhere else in life.

Take a look at today’s professional athletes for example. More specific and closer to home, let’s look at pro surfing. There are so many professional surfers out there that do mind blowing things in small to ultra large surf. These guys are super athletes in my book. That is, they are focused, fit and consistent. Andy Irons is one such surfer from Hawaii. He is a three time world champion and fits the bill as a super surfer. It’s hard to imagine that there is a shadow cast over him that goes by the name of Kelly Slater, the nine time world champion. However, there it is, a three fold gap that puts Andy way back in the spot light by comparison alone. This may sound silly and maybe juvenile but I kind of understand what it feels like to be Andy. I mean the comparison the thing. Here’s the catch though. If you had to ask who was doing the most of the comparing in Kelly v. Andy, I would guess, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that it was Andy. That holds the same with me. I am who I am and in light of the situation and where I’m at and whatever is going on my results are based on where I fit in. What I’m trying to convey is that the whole comparison, jealousy thing is all in my head. If it was in the other guy’s head that would just make him an ass and if that was the case, I’m not jealous of an ass.

This is where balance comes in and just letting go in any situation. In retrospect of my performance yesterday I could not have been more tight, or any more conservative. I fear pain and loss so much that there is no way I could achieve the rare layup. My colleagues made more money than me yesterday, not because they are better, but because they took on more risk and were more relaxed at it than I was at being conservative. There’s nothing more to it than that. More risk and more relaxed at doing it.

 I read somewhere when asked if Kelly Slater is going to go for another world title that he wasn’t really focused on it. In other words, he’s competing because he loves to compete and loves the fact that there are other super surfers around him that will challenge him and push him. Either he is going to be the best or he’s not and he’s simply comfortable with that but stoked that he can have the opportunity to be challenged. I’d like to add one more thing though, whether he says it or not, it sure feels good being great doing it. The fact is, I love my business and I love trading. I’ve going on nine years in this business and I love it more than I started. That’s just the way it is and I wish everybody could say that about whatever it is they are doing in this world. I forget that a lot though. Maybe, just maybe, when I’m being all tight and my palms are sweating, I have to remember that it’s those moments that attract me to what I’m doing. It’s like dropping into a a six foot wave over a shallow reef. Nature’s perfect yin yang. There is pain and ecstasy existing in perfect harmony.

Remembering Why I Started This

“The patient should be made to understand that he or she must take charge of his own life.  Don’t take your body to the doctor as if he were a repair shop. ” ~Quentin Regestein

I woke up with this morning with the intention of finding a nice prayer for health as a quote. I thought it would be a simple process searching for one online that’s not tied to a specific religion. It wasn’t so easy so I stuck with the quote above. I chose the quote as it seemed to have stood out the most from the other health related quotes. I probably chose it because I was just at my family doctor with my father who is suffering from a long term illness and is physically wasting away before my eyes. He’s had the illness for years now but within the last six months, his body has degenerated rapidly and now he is in need of a surgery that might just improve the quality of his life and extend it just a little longer. What’s interesting about all of this is that I’ve always gone about my daily life and I had been able to safely tuck away the fact that he is suffering and perhaps, which is even harder for me to admit until now, dying.

For the first time, in many years, I’ve let his illness affect me. I’m only human, right? Isn’t it strange though that in my prayers for his health and my focus on his pain that I myself have taken pains. My sleep for the past several days have been fitful and I find myself wide awake in the middle of the night. When I do sleep, my dreams are vivid and are of his family. My own body has deep knots in my shoulder as if I had whiplash and my ability to concentrate at work has become comprimised.

So, what am I to do? Well, for starters, I bowed out of the trading early on Friday and decided to take the rest of the year of off with a plan to come back fresh on January 5. I was going to take a vacation anyway so in essence I’m only taking a couple extra days off. The trading desk is highly competitive and it’s no different than showing up to a play a game. If my head is not in the game, then why play. I am not a bench warmer so I don’t want to show up unless I’m playing.

My goal during this time off is to get back on track with some sort of consistent workout. I don’t care what it is as long as I’m doing something every single day. I discovered several years ago that because of the high level of stress of what I do, that if I don’t have some sort of outlet at least five days a week my body begins to break down. When I first started in the business my “medicine” came in the form of booze, food, and cigarettes. They all work really well but there is no quality in life in those things. After several years of doing that, I decided to take the opposite end of the spectrum by giving up the booze and cigarettes, eating healthy and running like Forrest Gump. The results from making that shift have paid off in so many positive ways that it requires a whole other journal entry.

I guess my point of bringing my dad’s health, my health and all of this up is because I have not worked out in a week and my body is paying the cost. Of course, I have a woderful excuse that comes in the form of my father’s physical problems but doesnt’ it seem insane that I have to aquire my own actual, physical pain just to deal with his? Certainly there is the deep emotional, human element that must not be ignored or contained (thus the cause of the neck stress). This can be handled other ways like talking about what I’m feeling openly with my family, seeing my shrink (everybody should see one), and saying my prayers.

For now, I’m going to Bikram Yoga this morning. I’m going to eat healthy foods all day and tomorrow I’m going to do physical activity again.